In what looks to be potentially the final national championships of this strange 2020-21 figure skating season (Canadian Nationals was cancelled as of January 11), the US Figure Skating Championships is happening this week, with many of the usual suspects ready to get back into competition.
What’s at stake? Well, this could very well be the first and final big competition of the season for everyone - Four Continents was cancelled months ago and the World Championships, still happening as of right now, is also hanging in the balance with the COVID-19 pandemic still very much out there and unpredictable. But there’s definitely something to be said about going into the Olympic season as the US champion.
As with Skate America in October, the US Championships will be held without an audience (though with very easily-excited fake crowd noise) and under the most stringent COVID protocols of any competition of the season. Nevertheless, competition will be plenty exciting.
US Championships predictions
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MEN Top 5 predictions
GOLD Nathan Chen
SILVER Jason Brown
BRONZE Vincent Zhou
4. Tomoki Hiwatashi
5. Alex Krasnozhon
Others to watch: Jimmy Ma, Maxim Naumov, Camden Pulkinen
There’s little doubt that Nathan Chen will be the overwhelming favorite for title #5 this week in Las Vegas. What more can you say about this guy? In a season where everything has been uncertain and unpredictable, he continues to deliver - he looked great in the International Selection Pool events early in the season, great again at Skate America (though with a couple of hiccups in the free), and then challenge himself with a quad loop at the Las Vegas Invitational that was taped right after Skate America. The last man to win five in a row at US Nationals? Dick Button, who won seven in a row back in the 40s and 50s.
Silver and bronze should figure to go to Jason Brown and Vincent Zhou in some order. This will be Brown’s first competition of the season after opting to stay in Canada during the Grand Prix, and while many will be watching for his quad, I’ll be very excited to see the new material he’s got in store for us. Zhou won silver at Skate America and will be coming in with a full season of training, which is certainly a different preparation than he had last year.
LADIES Top 5 predictions
GOLD Karen Chen
SILVER Audrey Shin
BRONZE Mariah Bell
4. Bradie Tennell
5. Amber Glenn
Others to watch: Hanna Harrell, Alysa Liu
Before you all throw your computers at me, I’m going to start with the fact that I have absolutely zero extra information to go off of in making these predictions. But what I will say is - I have a feeling that this top five is going to be really close. If you look back at Skate America, Bell, Chen, Shin, and Tennell were separated by all of eight points - so it’s all just separated by one mistake or so. This time next week, we could look at this as clairvoyant or as wtf-was-he-thinking.
There’s something about Karen Chen and the way that she’s been skating this season that has really caught my eye. And that free skate at Skate America was one of the best that she’s skated in a very long time, which I think might be a huge motivator for her. Audrey Shin will bring her consistency, but her strong basics and musicality have been overlooked in her rise this season. The pre-competition favorites, though, will be Mariah Bell and Bradie Tennell, both of whom have been inconsistent so far this season, and you wonder how much they have been able to fix that in the past couple of months.
But!!! Amber Glenn and the Legend of the Triple Axel. If she can somehow string that jump and a consistent set of programs together, watch out.
PAIRS Top 5 predictions
GOLD Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier
SILVER Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson
BRONZE Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc
4. Audrey Lu/Misha Mitrofanov
5. Olivia Serafini/Mervin Tran
Others to watch: Katie McBeath/Nathan Bartholomay
It’ll likely be a battle between the training mates. Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier and Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson have the strongest overall package of the pairs here. And if Skate America was any indication, Knierim/Frazier may have the consistency in the side-by-sides that Calalang/Johnson perhaps don’t have. But this is another couple of months since Skate America, so who knows how much Calalang/Johnson have been able to improve on that front? It could go to either of them - they are very evenly matched. Former US champs Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc could very well be the spoilers for the title. They too have the big tricks, and they know how to win this thing outright.
DANCE Top 5 predictions
GOLD Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue
SILVER Madison Chock/Evan Bates
BRONZE Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker
4. Caroline Green/Michael Parsons
5. Lorraine McNamara/Anton Spiridonov
It’ll be another battle between Madison Chock/Evan Bates and Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue, but this time it’s a Chock/Bates who is competing for the very first time this season vs. a Hubbell/Donohue who are more competition-ready. And perhaps it’ll be that that will make the difference. Chock/Bates missed Skate America because they opted to stay in Canada to train after Chock was off the ice with a concussion earlier in the season. Hubbell/Donohue are back with stronger content than they’ve had in recent seasons. But the difference may be in the levels that they end up getting - it’ll be close.
With Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko out because of direct contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19 (they themselves have tested negative), it’ll be Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker’s bronze to lose, as they look to hold off Caroline Green/Michael Parsons.